The Importance of Fathers and Strong Families

The importance of fatherly influence was on full display over the past week or so publicly. Consider the following two videos:

 

It’s not about race, or socioeconomic status.

It’s about fatherhood. I am making an assumption here, namely that a substantial percentage of the kids in the second video do not have fathers who are consistently in their lives.

If they did, they wouldn’t need a judge to tell break down the facts of life to them. The fact that they are hearing this message from a county judge suggests that there was no influence in their lives to stop them from descending to that point. In the absence of fathers, children, especially boys, will seek out other influences to fill the void. In poorer, urban areas, this tends to be ‘the wrong crowd.’ This is how they end up in the streets, under the wings of criminals who know nothing but trouble. Unfortunately, the draw is great given that these older males do offer mentorship on some level.

Contrast that to the Trump video, in which he recounts telling his children every day – no alcohol, no drugs, no cigarettes, to the point of irritation. Of course any teen would be irritated and annoyed, but the undeniable truth is that adhering to that simple dictum is going to set one up to be most productive individual possible. In Trump’s case, his children turned out to be well rounded, well spoken individuals, who did not fall into the trap of wealth that ensnares many rich kids.

In today’s world, however, people are going to have problems with both videos. I’ve seen many comments to the effect that the judge was too hard on those kids, and I know for a fact that there are many (mostly single mothers) who would lash out if someone spoke to their kids like that.

On the other hand, I’ve seen a few state that Trump’s parenting style was too harsh and restrictive as well.

In many ways that is the problem. In 2016, we’ve become a bit too blasé and indifferent with respect to social mores and proper behavior. We very much live in an ‘anything goes’ culture. You can explain any level of deviance merely by stating what year it currently is.

Most of that starts in the family, or rather the lack thereof. Our ‘modern families,’ which increasingly consist of combinations other than biological parents and their children, have brought with them increasing amounts of dysfunction.

If I could only change one thing about society, it would be to restore the social stigma surrounding raising children outside the confines of committed monogomous relationship. The bottom line is that children are going to seek out guidance from some source. The further it is away from the father, the more likely there is to be damage.

To The Surprise of None, Janet Yellen Does Not See a Bubble in the Economy

Last night, Janet Yellen was accompanied by her three predecessors as Fed Chairmen, Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker at a forum in New York discussing various issues.

In the wake of Donald Trump declaring that the economy was a bubble, and that a large recession was on the cards, moderator Fareed Zakaria asked Yellen if we really were in a situation ‘as perilous as some on the campaign trail have been suggesting.’ This was Yellen’s response in full:

So I would say the US economy has made tremendous progress in recovering from the damage from the financial crisis. Slowly but surely the labor market is healing. For well over a year we’ve averaged about  225,000 jobs a month. The unemployment rate now stands at 5%. So, we’re coming close to our assigned congressional goal of maximum employment.

 

Inflation which, my colleagues here Paul and Allen, spent much of their time as chair, bringing inflation down from unacceptably high levels. For a number of years now inflation has been running under our 2% goal and we’re focused on moving it up to 2%.

 

But we think that it’s partly transitory influences, namely declining oil prices, and the strong dollar that are responsible for pulling inflation below the 2% level we think is most desirable. So, I think we’re making progress there as well, and this is an economy on a solid course, um, not a bubble economy.

 

We tried carefully to look at evidence of potential financial instability that might be brewing and some of the hallmarks of that, clearly overvalued asset prices, high leverage, rising leverage, and rapid credit growth. We certainly don’t see those imbalances. And so although interest rates are low, and that is something that could encourage reach for yield behavior, I wouldn’t describe this as a bubble economy.

More specifically, her reasoning as to why this can’t be described as a bubble economy:

We tried carefully to look at evidence of potential financial instability that might be brewing and some of the hallmarks of that,

such as

clearly overvalued asset prices,

MW-EB006_overva_20151210143625_ZH

(‘Now’ was December of 2015)

high leverage, rising leverage,

-1x11-1

-1x-1-1x-1NYSE-margin-debt-SPX-since-1995

and rapid credit growth.

fredgraph

 

We certainly don’t see those imbalances.

Ordinarily, one would suggest that she look a little harder, but in this case the suggestion would be futile. The famous Upton Sinclair quote about a man (or in this case woman) not being capable of understanding something when he or she is paid not to understand it is apropos.

Central bankers will never, ever see a bubble ahead of time because that would mean admitting some sort of fault. Central banks attempt to guide and steer the economy through the business cycle, and thus if a bubble arises, it is almost completely of their doing. Thus, they can never admit to it before the fact.

After it bursts, however, all sorts of gnashing of teeth occurs as to why the inevitable crisis was unforeseeable, thanks to some insidious development out of their control. The go-to excuse the last time around was a savings glut in Asia. Who knows what they’ll say this time.

On Tesla’s Model 3 Fanfare

Tesla is one of, if not the most polarizing companies out there, from an investment perspective. You are either a 100% believer in every word that Elon Musk says or you believe that the company is the ultimate hype job. There is usually little scope to be somewhere in the middle, but I am just there.

I do believe that Musk is potentially a transformational figure in the same vein as Henry Ford and Bill Gates. At the same time, Tesla’s ambitions are not backed by the marketplace. They have been at best marginally profitable, and have been trending towards markedly unprofitable in the last year, and rely on substantial government subsidies.

The unveiling of their new Model 3 last week was met with all sorts of fanfare. Bloomberg have even declared that the car has already lived up to the hype, despite the fact that it will not be available until late 2017. This morning, they’ve announced that over 325,000 people paid a $1000 deposit for the car.

In truth, that doesn’t mean very much, beyond the great press. The deposit can be recalled at any time, and as such it is basically a loan from the depositors to Tesla, who will use that money in the production process. The risk for Tesla is that between now and the eventual release date, problems may arise which lead to mass refunds of deposits, which put the company in an even more precarious financial position than it is in. Those problems may include things a simple as the $35,000 price point moving higher, or the release date being pushed further and further back. The Model 3 really has to be a home run for Tesla.

Personally, I hope that it is. But with regards to its stock, I cannot justify the stratospheric levels to which it has risen. Quite frankly, TSLA is a company with a great story but very little of substance to back it up (at this time). It could very well come through in the end, but such premises are not what good investments are made upon. A look at the history of the stock is below:

TSLA

TSLA has achieved its great heights mostly on the back of hedge fund driven momentum buying, a feature of the now 7 year bull market from 2009. Regardless of its financials, the hype of Tesla has been the impetus to new highs.

One investing in this stock would do well to wait until Tesla actually develops a track record of consistency in its sales, projections and deliveries on a lot of the promises Musk has made. In terms of the short term action, it is my belief that it will rally to new all time highs, besting the $291 mark it set in 2014. Naturally, $300 might be a magnet. But from there I do not see how there is much upside, especially given I believe we are in the early stages of a bear market generally. Or, at the very least we are in the beginning stages of a substantial (20-40%) correction in the general market.

Should that be the case, the momentum stocks like Tesla are going to be the hardest hit, and as such one should steer clear of them. That said, a massive decline in the stock would be welcome news for real investors. Looking ahead to late 2017, the potential confluence of a much lower stock price much in line with its current fundamentals, and a smooth Model 3 release, would be a fertile ground to plant the seeds of a good investment.

That time has not yet come, however. Playing in Tesla at this stage is a gamble, and participants should act accordingly.

Election Math: Was Ted Cruz’ Victory in Wisconsin A Turning Point?

Ted Cruz won the Wisconsin Primary last night, taking 40 of the 46 delegates. This leaves the delegate count looking like this:

Trump – 758

Cruz – 505

Kasich – 144

There are 769 delegates remaining.

I’m not going to discuss Kasich the rest of the way given he is irrelevant, and cannot obtain the magic number for the nomination which is 1237. He still trails Marco Rubio, who dropped out nearly a month ago.

In order for Trump to attain enough delegates to win the nomination outright, he will need at least 479 of the remaining 769, or roughly 62%. Cruz would have to win 732 of the remaining delegates, or 95%.

That is pretty much an impossibility, so for all intents and purposes, Donald Trump is the only candidate who can win the nomination on the first ballot at the convention.

Cruz will be mathematically knocked out of winning a majority if he does not win at least 58 delegates in New York on April 19th.

Continuing along those lines, here is a look at the next phase of the election, starting from New York up until West Virginia on May 10:

April 19th:

New York (95 Delegates)

April 26th:

Connecticut (26 Delegates)

Delaware (16 Delegates)Maryland

(38 Delegates)

Pennsylvania (17 Delegates bound, 54 more unbound)

Rhode Island (19 Delegates)

May 3:

Indiana (57 Delegates)

May 10:

Nebraska (36 Delegates)

West Virginia (34 Delegates)

Trump winning roughly 62% of the delegates through this stretch would leave him with about 1000 delegates. If he leaves this stretch with that figure or higher, he will be in good shape heading towards the western states. That means a haul of about 242 delegates, and his home state of NY will be a huge part of him attaining that figure. If Trump sweeps through the April 26th contests, he’ll be well on his way to attaining the figure he needs, with either Indiana or West Virginia putting him over the top. A lot will be determined over the next 21 days.

Turning Point?

Predictably, after the Wisconsin result, there has been much in the way of celebration from everyone but the Trump camp. Recall that the past two weeks have been an all out blitz from the #NeverTrump camp, from Wisconsin conservative talk radio, to GOP establishment figureheads like Scott Walker.

Trump made a few unforced errors as well, which didn’t help him, but at the end of the day the fact that Wisconsin is a different breed of conservative didn’t help him. The radio hosts told him as much the minute he landed in the state. Exit polling showed that Wisconsin Republican voters were less ‘angry’ at the system in comparison to other states. In short, the state of Wisconsin is fine with the status quo as it is. That never augured well for Trump.

This is not a turning point, however, despite what the media and Cruz camp are trying to say. What Wisconsin happened to be was the perfect storm. RNC chairman Reince Priebus, governor Scott Walker and Speaker of the House Paul Ryan are all Wisconsinites. Anti-Trump SuperPACs spent tens of millions in the state. Multiple talk show radio hosts, all with heavy influence on the electorate, are all anti-Trumpers. Charlie Sykes, one of those radio hosts, bluntly laid out the motivations for supporting Cruz on MSNBC yesterday:

I’ve said Ted Cruz is not my first choice, my second choice, or my third choice, but he’s the guy right now who is the only guy that can stop Donald Trump from getting 1,237 and the only candidate who can stop him in Wisconsin. He is the guy. So I am more anti-Trump than I am pro-Cruz, but Ted Cruz acceptable enough to Wisconsinites.

Cruz is acceptable enough to Wisconsinites, and indeed the GOP, for now. His only use to the GOPe is to stop Trump from getting a majority. Having done that, they’ll drop Cruz like a hot potato at the convention and go for someone else.

It baffles me that Cruz supporters are so blind as to think that they actually have a shot to win the nomination. The real feeling about Cruz among most of the GOPe is that he is terrible, but at least he is the devil we know. Whereas Trump is a total wild card.

In truth, the only reason Cruz has come this far is because the Trump phenomenon made room for Cruz as an ‘outsider.’ If Trump had never entered, there is no way Cruz could have made such an inroad. He would have had to be as brash as Trump was at the beginning, but given the way he has been treated in national politics and the media since his rise to the senate, he would have been discarded quickly. As I wrote a few weeks ago, Trump is probably the only man in America to actually make a real ‘outsider’ viable.

This is precisely why Cruz stayed silent when everyone and their mother denounced Trump in the summer and fall of 2015. Cruz was doing this because he recognized that the real fight was between the outsiders and the GOPe, and that by biding his time, allowing Trump to build up the ‘outsider’ side of the ledger, he could come in later and try and fight him for it. Had Cruz gone after Trump earlier, he would have aligned himself with the GOPe side and been blown out quickly.

At this stage of the game, now that all real establishment threats have gone to the wayside, the only thing that could benefit the GOPe is a fight between the ‘outsiders,’ Trump and Cruz, that could leave both unable to achieve a majority and thus put the GOPe back in control at the convention.

Of course, Cruz isn’t a real outsider, in the sense that he has been in the Washington system all of his career. He is a system man who nobody likes, not because he wants to change the system necessarily, but because he expedited his rise through the ranks by playing at being the outsider.

At the end of the day, he still has to make concessions to the system, which is the reason that those wanting real change should back Trump. Trump may not be the PRINCIPLED CONSERVATIVE everyone wants, but those principles have no place in the current political system outside of the fringes.

This is what #NeverTrump people don’t get, and it was evident in Wisconsin over the course of the last two weeks. If you want real PRINCIPLED CONSERVATISM in 2016, the current system has to look a lot different. In reality, the current culture has to look a lot different. You aren’t going to change it toiling in the doldrums of Politics As Usual. You have to burn the house down and start again. Which is what Trump represents.

Once a Trump-like candidate, warts and all, finishes his work, the likes of Ted Cruz, the Pauls, and whoever can actually impart their PRINCIPLED CONSERVATISM from a place of strength, rather than fighting against the machine. If last night was indeed a turning point, the machine will remain, and PRINCIPLED CONSERVATISM will achieve nothing more than token senate seats and marginal presidential primary runs.

Reality Doesn’t Care About Feelings: Volume 2 – Michelle Fields vs Corey Lewandowski

The press is to have an adversarial, yet civil approach to those in, or running, for elected office. Never in this line of work is it acceptable to respond to reasonable and legitimate questioning with use of physical force. The photographs, audio, videos, and witness accounts documenting the treatment of Michelle Fields by Corey Lewandowski, Donald Trump’s campaign manager, are inexcusable and unprofessional. Donald Trump should immediately remove Lewandowski from his campaign. However unlike the Trump campaign, we believe in making a statement on the record to clearly highlight the difference between right and wrong.

The above quote was from a press release signed by 16 conservative females in response to the developments surrounding an incident which took place between Corey Lewandowski, Donald Trump’s campaign manager, and Michelle Fields, a reporter. The full letter is below:

medialetter

By now this incident has been discussed to death, mostly because it is a Trump mishap. If you’ll notice, the vast majority, if not all of the signatories are anti Trump pundits, and as such, this sort of story is heaven sent. It seemingly allows them to further push the idea that Trump is a woman hating Neanderthal who is dangerous and bad. It also seemingly gives credence to the idea that there is a specter of violence surrounding the Trump campaign, which does not bode well for the country as a whole should he be elected president.

This allowed the other candidates to gain cheap points by pandering to women. Given the other candidates all have an interest in any anti-Trump talking point, they were all more than happy to pile on with the outrage. The story hasn’t completely died, because of the way Trump has responded.

Instead of immediately firing Lewandowski, who has been charged with battery over the incident, Trump went on the offensive and has defended his campaign manager at almost every turn. That continued last night on Sean Hannity’s show on Fox.

That appearance led to even more outrage from the anti-Trump crowd still pushing this story, and Fields in particular. In the following exchange with Hannity on Twitter, she accuses him of not having her back and letting Trump off scot-free:

Capture.PNG1

The Reality

Just in case you still haven’t seen the incident, and aren’t sure what I’m talking about, the following is security footage released by the Jupiter, Florida police department.

If you’re not sure what you’re looking at, at the start of the video Fields is in the cream colored top walking next to Trump, attempting to ask him a question. From about 0:03 to 0:08 in the video is where the alleged battery takes place.

Shortly after the conference had ended, Fields penned this piece for Breitbart, describing her version of events (emphasis mine):

On Tuesday night, I went to cover Donald Trump’s press conference at the Trump National Golf Club in Jupiter, Florida. I was looking to cover the event like I have covered many live political events for Breitbart News, including an uneventful Trump press conference in Palm Beach the week before. 

 

Addressing the gathered reporters and the nation at large, Trump was in an especially jovial mood Tuesday night. The networks just declared he had won the Mississippi Republican primary and, during his speech, that he won Michigan Republican primary as well.

 

 

I wasn’t called upon to ask a question during the televised press conference, but afterwards Trump wandered around, stopping at every reporter to take their questions. When he approached me, I asked him about his view on an aspect of affirmative action. 

 

Trump acknowledged the question, but before he could answer I was jolted backwards. Someone had grabbed me tightly by the arm and yanked me down. I almost fell to the ground, but was able to maintain my balance. Nonetheless, I was shaken.

 

 

The Washington Post’s Ben Terris immediately remarked that it was Trump’s campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, who aggressively tried to pull me to the ground. I quickly turned around and saw Lewandowski and Trump exiting the building together. No apology. No explanation for why he did this.  


 

Even if Trump was done taking questions, Lewandowski would be out of line. Campaign managers aren’t supposed to try to forcefully throw reporters to the ground, no matter the circumstance. But what made this especially jarring is that there was no hint Trump was done taking questions. No one was pushing him to get away. He seemed to have been happily answering queries from my fellow reporters just a moment before.  

 

Many people have been asking me on Twitter and in emails what exactly happened Tuesday night. I hope this article answers those questions and I can get back to reporting the news, not being a part of it. 

Lewandowski responded via this tweet:

Capture.PNG2

This is what kicked everything off, as Lewandowski essentially called Fields a liar and claimed to have never touched Fields. At time, Trump responded to a question about the incident by saying that Fields may have made the whole thing up. Note that at the time of Fields’ account on Breitbart, and Lewandowski’s tweet, there was no video.

Once the video came out, the knives came out for Lewandowski and Trump for claiming the incident never happened, and in particular over their language intimating that Fields was a crazy lady making things up.

The position that the Trump team have been lying and smearing Fields is on weak grounds, however. This is because of the discrepancy between the video evidence, and what I have highlighted in Fields’ statement. Any rational human being can see in the video that Lewandowski did not try and forcefully throw Fields to the ground. She did not almost lose her balance, she did not seem shaken, there was not any element of violence from Lewandowski.

It was that accusation, specifically Fields’ insistence in Breitbart that she had been brutally assaulted Mortal Kombat style, which was so thoroughly denounced by Lewandowski and Trump. 

Yes, Lewandowski did literally touch Fields. However, he was responding to allegations that he had violently thrown a reporter to the ground. Imagine that, for example, you were walking in a crowd and bumped into a random person, but kept going without apologizing. Then, two days later, the police came to your house and said that you punched that person in the face, leaving that person hospitalized, and were now under arrest.

Most people would be totally incredulous, and claim that the accuser was deluded. Given that bumping into someone in a crowd is such an inconsequential thing that it wouldn’t register in one’s memory, it is easy to see how one would say they didn’t even touch the accuser, let alone landed a blow worthy of hospitalization.

To be sure, Lewandowski was completely guilty of being impolite, rude, and perhaps even unprofessional. However, anyone who has ever been in a crowded public space has been subject to that sort of behavior and worse from others. I’m sure this morning alone, hundreds if not thousands have undergone similar ‘assaults’ in the NYC subways on the way to work.

As such Lewandowski (and Trump) both suggesting that Fields was a bit deluded isn’t an egregious thing, because the truth is that she did grossly embellish what happened. The fact that we even have the video above is because Trump’s security reviewed it and gave to the police voluntarily, in order to absolve Lewandowski. The Trump team correctly came to the conclusion that the whole thing was much ado about nothing, and figured that the video would show that.

Instead, the response was the week long media storm that I previously alluded to. It has been driven by the #NeverTrump movement in conjunction with the usual suspects in the liberal and conservative establishment media. What is more interesting than that however, is the calls for Trump to fire Lewandowski, and his refusal to acquiesce. It is a microcosm of a larger issue that plagues our society.

We are now living in a society in which allegations and accusations are more or less equal to convictions. This is most prevalent in sexual assault cases, where the accused male is dragged through the mud for simply being accused. If the individual is high profile enough, he generally has to resign, endorsements are withdrawn, and so forth. Whether the accused is actually guilty or not is of little consequence.

In other words, the truth is of little consequence when it comes to the feelings of the Social Justice Warrior outrage mob. This episode is particularly interesting given the fact that the 16 signatories of the letter asking for Lewandowski’s dismissal are purportedly conservative, and have railed against some of the tactics of Social Justice Warriors in the past.

Yet, they are now happy to employ those same tactics when the subject is Donald Trump. That belies an inconsistency within the mainstream, establishment faction of the GOP which is at the very heart of its current demise, and simultaneous rise of Donald Trump.

This is exactly why the GOP establishment is out of touch with everyday Americans. They see a video like the one above, and see a man being extremely rude. Most people brush it off a few seconds later. So, when they see that police charges, and calls for being fired, all over the same incident, they scratch their heads. Not because they are wondering what they could have missed, but because they are wondering how one can be so disingenuous one can be in attacking a rival.

My advice to the #NeverTrump crowd is to let this one go. The more the public sees of this incident, the more they will come to the conclusion that the media is dishonest, and that Trump is right. Trying to convince people not to believe what their lying eyes tell them is only going to make them stop and think. They will wonder why everyone from all corners of politics, and the big interests are going to such lengths to denounce Trump, and they will come to the conclusion that the man who everyone is slinging mud at  is actually favorable to the mudslingers, when it is clear they are dishonest.

Market Update – Bears Last Stand?

The last five to six weeks have been quite painful for those who are bearish on equity markets, as they have been swept aside by a short squeeze which has been historic in nature. The US markets opened the year with its worst start on record in response to the rate hike of December 2015. This led many, including myself, to believe that a 2008 style year was on the cards.

My view is still that we are in a bear market, or at the very least in the midst of a real correction, the likes which haven’t been seen since 2012. This is based on the basic fact that the Federal Reserve, which has been the main driver of the now 7 year long bull market, has for at least 2 years taken its foot off the gas. The impetus for equity price appreciation has now gone, and it is still my base case that there will not be any new highs in the S&P 500 without the Federal Reserve going back on its current normalization path.

Janet Yellen may have already reversed course, given her extremely dovish speech at the Economic Club of New York last week. This reverse course has come in the shape of a reduction in the number of planned rate hikes for 2016, from four to two. It remains to be seen what actually happens, but if the Fed stays where it is, it is unlikely that prices much higher. Having said that, the rally from February 10 has been impressive. Below are two charts of the S&P 500 futures, over the last four years, and the last three months respectively:

ESWEEKLY ESFOURHOUR

The white moving average on all charts is a 55 period moving average. The top chart, a weekly chart spanning 4 years, shows that indeed the bull has at least come to a resting point over the last 18 months. Momentum, which is indicated at the bottom of the chart, has also stalled out and acted negatively over that time frame.

The main point of contentment for bulls is the failure of prices to break the 1800/1850 area, as indicated by the yellow band. Particularly impressive was the hold and sharp rebound in early February, which has been the genesis of the current rally. This rally is highlighted in the second chart above. It has been quite orderly, respecting the moving average as it slogs higher, further demoralizing bears. It is at a key area though. If the bears are to remain in control, price is going to have to stall out here and reverse lower. Should we see 2100 again, it will surely be the time to throw in the towel in terms of shorting the market. It wouldn’t necessarily be a time to open new long term positions, given the flirtation all time highs, but it would be a significant defeat for those looking for a significant correction to the long term bull. As a result, I believe that the next few weeks of price action will be Incredibly important.

 

Crude Oil Futures

 

The following is a chart of Crude Oil over the last 20 years or so:

CLWEEKLY

The devastating move lower since 2014 has been one of the major talking points in finance. On a technical basis, I believe that the easy money has already been made on the short side, and there is a limited downside to come from here, at least in terms of a nominal price decline. As you can see, I’ve drawn in levels at $25 and $17ish, which are roughly 30-60% away from current levels. That is no slouch in terms of profit potential.

My current view is that price ‘wants’ to see something in the low $20s, and perhaps even lower if there is a capitulation type of move. It would make sense technically as well, given the fact that $25 is a major bottom, as is the $17/18 area. $20 is a major psychological level as well.

CLDAILY

CLFOURHOUR

Having said that, there is a lot of talk about the bottom in Crude, which is why I suggested that the ‘easy’ money has been made already on the short side. There is constant talk of production freezes and reductions, which are meant to boost prices. I do think the simple fundamentals are going to prevent any material price increases for now, and the technicals support that as well. The top of the two charts show the action over the last 12 months, which is decidedly bearish.

The bottom chart shows the current upswing, which like the one in stocks began in early February. Price is currently at an extremely important level, $36ish. A break below would probably see prices quickly deteriorate, back towards $31. Holding at these levels and trending back towards the $40s may indicate that a legitimate respite from falling crude oil prices may in fact be on.

Gold

 

GOLD WEEKLY

The above weekly chart represents the last 4.5 years of action, all of it spent declining from the peak of 1923 in September of 2011. As you can see, it has respected the moving average up until the beginning of this year, when it spiked higher. A closer look at the move below:

GOLDDAILY

I’m inclined to believe that gold has made a secular bottom, and will now resume the uptrend that it began way back in 2001. In terms of a shorter term outlook, the move from 1050 to 1287 is in the process of being retraced. I’ve highlighted a band which should be instructive. Holding those levels and making a further high from here should confirm that the bull market is back on. Breaking back lower towards 1050 suggests it hasn’t begun just yet.

 

US Dollar

 

DOLLARWEEKLY

DOLLARDAILY

Another of the major talking points in finance over the last four years has been the performance of the US dollar. It has been a one way street for 4+ years, going higher, as is shown in the first chart. The second chart shows the churn prices have faced over the last 18 months or so.

Telling price action for me was the move to new highs in late 2015 followed by an abrupt reaction lower. This suggests to me that the next major move in the Dollar Index is lower, and price is seemingly in the process of travelling along that path. Early targets are the range lows at 92, and failing that, the area between 86 and 90 is one of great interest.

 

Until next week, happy trading.